2024-2025 Playoffs; Western Conference Semis, last 4
DAL v OKC
-Game 1 line:
- 1st half: OKC -6, 117.5(DraftKings)
- Full game: OKC -10.5, 229.5
- Halftime score: 60-50, OKC
- 2nd half line: OKC -2.5, 112.5 (DraftKings)
- Final score: 121 - 119, DEN
GS v MINN
-Game 1 line:
- 1st half:
- Full game: MINN -6, 210.5 (DraftKings)
- Halftime score: 44-31, GS
- 2nd half line:
- Final score: 99-88 GS
5/5/2025
If I was betting any of these WCF series, I'd bet UNDER every game, maybe even every 1st half (I know we should be looking for OVERs but in looking for OVER games, we can spot games that we think are easy UNDERs)
I expect OKC to overwhelm DEN. I expect the game to get off to slow starts, especially Game 1.
I expect GS/MINN to be a grind it out series; diving for loose balls and hard screens.
I would bet 2nd half UNDER if any of the 1st halves went OVER.
5/10/2025
Happy Mother's day weekend all! As both of the Western Conference Semis continue, I think UNDER is the way to go:
- Both coaches are young and inexperienced; not sure what adjustments they're gonna make. Maybe no adjustments or ones that no one will pick up on b/c they're inexperienced and/or no track record yet
- Still think OKC will eventually start overwhelming DEN at some point, maybe starting Game 4
- If any game goes OVER in the DEN/OKC series, it'll be due to fouling at the end of games OR OT; I don't think it'll go OVER in regulation time
I'd stay away from both Eastern Conference series; too unpredictable and not sure when a team will decide to show up. One team may eventually pack in Game 3/4 and prep for Game 4/5 because they dont feel like they can win.
5/14/2025
Both Western Conference Semis, I'm still taking the UNDER; GS/MINN I believe will be a defensive struggle, even if Curry comes back. OKC/DEN, I expect will be a rock fight. I expect OKC's defense to start controlling the game(s).
If there's an Eastern Conference game I'd bet on, it'd be tonight's NYK/BOS game; I'd take the OVER, 1st half and whole game b/c I dont think BOS is going down without a fight, with/without Tatum.
Current lines, Game 5 (~1 hour before tipoff):
1st half: BOS -4, 106.5 (DraftKings)
Full game: BOS -3.5, 208.5 (ESPN)
Halftime score: 59-59
2nd half line:
Final score: 127-102, BOS
5/20/2025
2024-2025 Playoffs; Western Conference Finals
MINN v OKC
-Game 1 line:
1st half: OKC -4.5, 112
Full game: OKC -7 219.5 (Diamondsb)
Halftime score: 48-44, MINN
2nd half line: -7, 107
Final score: 114-88, OKC
Taking all the UNDERs ($500/each + juice): 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, 1st half, full game (56, 55.5, 111.5, 219 (at time of bet) )
I think it's going be a struggle to start, shaking off the rust of a few days off. Let's do this!
